More accurate predictions, in hindsight

I was always aware of hindsight bias - how we as humans seem wiser in hindsight about events that have already transpired in a certain way. However, I was not aware of the extent to which society quietly and ignorantly practised this vice. As I read Daniel Kanheman's explanations on this phenomenon in his seminal book Thinking Fast and Slow, I was taken aback by how substantial its impact could be. 

Kanheman cites a couple of experiments that were conducted on test subjects. The first set were political commentators in Jerusalem, where the task was to predict the outcome of the meeting between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong. The initial observations were recorded before the meeting took place, and the participants were asked to state probabilities of certain outcomes. After the meeting occurred and they became aware of the results of the meeting, the same participants were asked to remember the initial values of probabilities for events that they had already assessed. Surprisingly, the participants changed their memories to cite increased probabilities for events that did take place, and reduced probabilities for events that did not, from their initial values.

The other experiment involves a bridge in a US city, Duluth Minnesota, where two groups were polled on the importance of hiring a dedicated public official, to lookout for debris clogging the flow of water. In the absence of any information about 24% of the first group thought that such an official was necessary. The second group were informed of events where debris had clogged the flow of water, and they were similarly asked about what their prediction would have been in the absence of this information. The group polled an average of about 56%, even after specifically being asked to not get influenced by the information they now knew about the bridge. 

It turns out that several professions, where outcomes are uncertain, are harshly judged by society. The example of doctors and physicians really jumped out at me here, because of the unfavourable view that I harbour about that practice, where endless tests are prescribed to seemingly healthy people, almost to indicate a nexus between doctors and labs. However, society is harsh, unfairly so, in its judgement of the failings of a doctor. Because that is how we are naturally disposed.

It is alarming to notice that human beings make so many errors of judgements because we are completely blinded to how their behaviour is shaped. There stems also a realization that I am as guilty (or ignorant) as anybody else in this regard, and I must observe greater caution while forming each and every one of the beliefs and judgements that shape my world-view  This heightened mental vigilance ought to be a lifelong endeavour, and the outset, it is tiring to think of how much effort this would demand! 

Practice Visualisation

I watched a TED ed video last night, which outlines how the nerves that carry the signals to our muscles get strengthened due to practice. This happens because of additional layers of fat, called myelin, deposited around the nerve fibres to prevent loss of information. This works much like insulation around an electric cable. The more we practice, the thicker the layer of myelin that is deposited around the specific set of nerves. 

The talk also outlined the surprising power of visualisation, especially for honing skills that we already posses. It showed an experiment where basketball players were divided into two groups, where the first group practised shooting hoops for a week, and the second group merely visualised the act of landing shots into the basket, in vivid detail. It turns out that, after a week, both groups had shown the same level of improvement.

The advantage of practising visually is that it can help improve performance without the risk of physical injury. Considering there are limits to which athletes can practice physically, do top level athletes use visualisation to up their game way beyond what regular practice alone can deliver? Visual practice also unlocks so many possibilities in the lives of regular folks - it is now possible to play the guitar better while staring out of a bus window. 

I wonder if the same technique could be used to related areas, such as improving will power. I have tried, with some success, to use this technique to wake up at a stipulated time in the morning - I picture in vivid detail, how I would scramble out of bed as soon as the alarm clock rings, going through the motions of waking, trying to imagine how every single muscle would protest, and groggy eyes would burn.

I am not sure if it was the power of visualisation, or my enthusiasm for getting this technique to work that finally got me out of bed. While I did wake up, I did not experience the same efficiency and sense of purpose about my movements as I had visualised. Just like any other skill, it seems like this would require a lot more practice (the title of this post could both be interpreted as both a noun and a verb). I am going to give visualisation a fairer shot at trying to improve certain aspects of my life. One effective application I can readily think of is for delivering presentations.

The reason for this blog

In recent times, I have found myself consuming books and podcasts quite regularly. As a result, I am exposed to several ideas of varied kind - the remarkable, the useful, the simple, the elegant, and so on. At times, it pains me that these ideas can be fleeting, and slip away before I am able to grasp and appreciate them fully. 

Enter writing. The written word is an unassuming disciplinarian. It forces one to wrestle with ideas, confront them, fine tune them and describe them succinctly, in a manner that makes later consumption easy, as well as effective. This rather unconscious exercise of having to fine tune every idea is akin to sculpting - chipping away at the excess, while retaining the essence. However, every idea is only as relevant as the spirit of its presence. Even scientific ideas purported to be timeless, such as the laws of gravitation, are fundamentally revisited and reconstructed. One art form that I have observed with quiet fascination, is that of sand sculpting - one that forever strives to capture the beauty of the present moment, while humbly accepting its temporal limitations.  

Also, this blog has been started with a selfish idea. Kurt Vonnegut famously quipped, "Write to please just one person. If you open a window and make love to the world, so to speak, your story will get pneumonia.". The one person he referred to here is one's own self. Initially, I mulled with the idea of keeping these posts entirely private, and started off on that footing. Nevertheless, if putting some of these posts out could form conduits for conversations, the exercise would be worth its while. I am grateful to anybody who makes a meaningful contribution there.