More accurate predictions, in hindsight

I was always aware of hindsight bias - how we as humans seem wiser in hindsight about events that have already transpired in a certain way. However, I was not aware of the extent to which society quietly and ignorantly practised this vice. As I read Daniel Kanheman's explanations on this phenomenon in his seminal book Thinking Fast and Slow, I was taken aback by how substantial its impact could be. 

Kanheman cites a couple of experiments that were conducted on test subjects. The first set were political commentators in Jerusalem, where the task was to predict the outcome of the meeting between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong. The initial observations were recorded before the meeting took place, and the participants were asked to state probabilities of certain outcomes. After the meeting occurred and they became aware of the results of the meeting, the same participants were asked to remember the initial values of probabilities for events that they had already assessed. Surprisingly, the participants changed their memories to cite increased probabilities for events that did take place, and reduced probabilities for events that did not, from their initial values.

The other experiment involves a bridge in a US city, Duluth Minnesota, where two groups were polled on the importance of hiring a dedicated public official, to lookout for debris clogging the flow of water. In the absence of any information about 24% of the first group thought that such an official was necessary. The second group were informed of events where debris had clogged the flow of water, and they were similarly asked about what their prediction would have been in the absence of this information. The group polled an average of about 56%, even after specifically being asked to not get influenced by the information they now knew about the bridge. 

It turns out that several professions, where outcomes are uncertain, are harshly judged by society. The example of doctors and physicians really jumped out at me here, because of the unfavourable view that I harbour about that practice, where endless tests are prescribed to seemingly healthy people, almost to indicate a nexus between doctors and labs. However, society is harsh, unfairly so, in its judgement of the failings of a doctor. Because that is how we are naturally disposed.

It is alarming to notice that human beings make so many errors of judgements because we are completely blinded to how their behaviour is shaped. There stems also a realization that I am as guilty (or ignorant) as anybody else in this regard, and I must observe greater caution while forming each and every one of the beliefs and judgements that shape my world-view  This heightened mental vigilance ought to be a lifelong endeavour, and the outset, it is tiring to think of how much effort this would demand!